亞洲人口老齡化利弊 中国加速滑入养老黑洞 Asia's Pension Systems Unprepared for Rapidly Aging Populations - ADB
Lex專欄：亞洲人口老齡化利弊英國《金融時報》 Lex專欄
暫時把歐元區危機和大宗商品價格下跌這兩件事放一放，考慮一下人口條件對於投資的作用吧。僅五年之內，中國的勞動力就將開始萎縮。德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)數據顯示，到2030年，日本人口的中位年齡將是51歲，中國人口的中位年齡將是43歲。到2050年，亞洲大多數國家的65歲以上人群在總人口中所佔比重將增加一倍以上。亞洲的人口紅利已快要耗盡，這一點將產生深遠的影響。日本經濟過去60年來增長陷入停滯，這與該國勞動人口不斷縮減直接相關。這並不意味著中國經濟將隨其勞動人口縮減而停止增長，但勞動人口縮減確實會導致勞動力成本進一步提高。儘管富士康（Foxconn，蘋果的供應商）已經開始將工廠轉移到成本較低的中國內陸地區，但該公司今年的工資水平還是增加了四分之一有餘。遷出中國則意味著供應鏈方面受到限制，這帶來的壞處將超過節省勞動力成本到來的好處。廉價的技術和豐厚的利潤率也將成為一紙空談。資產配置也將受到影響。理論上，較年長的投資者更傾向於投資債券，而不是像股票這樣風險較高的資產。經濟學家劉錚和馬克•施皮格爾(Mark Spiegel)估計，隨著老年人投資者紛紛拋出股票換取資金貼補退休生活，股價將下跌。這對一片慘淡的亞洲股市而言不是個好消息。目前上證綜指(Shanghai Composite)的市盈率為12倍，比標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)低五分之一。不過，人口老齡化也不全是壞事。在日本，退休老人將來之不易的積蓄花在跟團遊、方便食品和醫療等項目上，支撐起該國消費的正是這群人。得益於此，在東京股票價格指數(Topix)遲滯不前之際，連鎖便利店羅森(Lawson)的股價今年卻累計攀升四分之一。瑞信(Credit Suisse)數據顯示，來自退休老人的需求也提振了日本服務業的就業情況。還有“渡邊太太”（Mrs Watanabe，指日本一心尋求更高投資回報的家庭主婦——譯者註）做不到的事嗎？
暫時把歐元區危機和大宗商品價格下跌這兩件事放一放，考慮一下人口條件對於投資的作用吧。僅五年之內，中國的勞動力就將開始萎縮。德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)數據顯示，到2030年，日本人口的中位年齡將是51歲，中國人口的中位年齡將是43歲。到2050年，亞洲大多數國家的65歲以上人群在總人口中所佔比重將增加一倍以上。亞洲的人口紅利已快要耗盡，這一點將產生深遠的影響。日本經濟過去60年來增長陷入停滯，這與該國勞動人口不斷縮減直接相關。這並不意味著中國經濟將隨其勞動人口縮減而停止增長，但勞動人口縮減確實會導致勞動力成本進一步提高。儘管富士康（Foxconn，蘋果的供應商）已經開始將工廠轉移到成本較低的中國內陸地區，但該公司今年的工資水平還是增加了四分之一有餘。遷出中國則意味著供應鏈方面受到限制，這帶來的壞處將超過節省勞動力成本到來的好處。廉價的技術和豐厚的利潤率也將成為一紙空談。資產配置也將受到影響。理論上，較年長的投資者更傾向於投資債券，而不是像股票這樣風險較高的資產。經濟學家劉錚和馬克•施皮格爾(Mark Spiegel)估計，隨著老年人投資者紛紛拋出股票換取資金貼補退休生活，股價將下跌。這對一片慘淡的亞洲股市而言不是個好消息。目前上證綜指(Shanghai Composite)的市盈率為12倍，比標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)低五分之一。不過，人口老齡化也不全是壞事。在日本，退休老人將來之不易的積蓄花在跟團遊、方便食品和醫療等項目上，支撐起該國消費的正是這群人。得益於此，在東京股票價格指數(Topix)遲滯不前之際，連鎖便利店羅森(Lawson)的股價今年卻累計攀升四分之一。瑞信(Credit Suisse)數據顯示，來自退休老人的需求也提振了日本服務業的就業情況。還有“渡邊太太”（Mrs Watanabe，指日本一心尋求更高投資回報的家庭主婦——譯者註）做不到的事嗎？
随着人口老龄化急速加剧，加上养老保险体制的不健全，中国将面临巨大的财政压力。加强养老体系的可持续性，将是新一届中国领导层必须面对的任务。
80岁高龄的农民高树和（音译）每个月只能从政府那里得到折合9美元的养老金，这连买些基本生活用品都不够。高生活在青海省一个海拔3000米高处的小山
村，他有着厚实粗糙的手掌，因为他一辈子都在田间辛苦耕作。"一个月55块钱是很少，但总比没有强。"由于他此前没有参加过城镇养老保险，也没有缴纳过相
关费用，所以根据规定，只可以领取每月55元人民币的基础养老金。
这位老人还是幸运的，因为他有六个子女，从孩子那里他可以得到经济上的资助。但是对于比他年轻的后辈来说，中国传统的家庭赡养模式将会渐渐消失，取而代之的应该是一个由国家支撑的、适应社会老龄化发展的养老体系。
农村养老保险带来的问题
长期以来，中国的政策制定者和经济学家一直为中国养老规划的不断扩大所带来的财政负担感到担忧。而从2009年秋天，国务院决定推行所谓的新型农村养老保险以来，这一担忧更是日益加剧。
资金空缺之大令人望而却步：经济专家表示，在未来的20年里，中国养老保险体系的亏空将从2010年的2.6万亿美元，飙升到10.8万亿美元，甚至超过了中国的外汇储备资金总额（3万亿左右），而中国已经是世界上外汇储备最高的国家了。
时不我待。由于计划生育政策和生活水平的提高，中国在经济迅速发展的同时，社会也在急速老龄化，这要求未来必须有更完善的养老保险体制。但是筹集资金的发展速度却远远跟不上养老体系扩大的步伐。
分析人士认为，中国的养老体制问题已经急迫到了不容忽视的程度。人们甚至猜测，即将接任中国国家主席的习近平在上台之后，必须尽快提高退休年龄，并且改革养老基金的融资方式。
人口老龄化和劳动大军萎缩有朝一日将使“世界工厂”成为过去
中南海新领导层的紧迫任务
中国人民大学经济学教授赵锡军表示："这对于中国下一届领导班子来说是非常重要的一个议题，而且时间紧迫。"中国的养老体系处在进退两难的境地中。优越的 养老金制度可以帮助中国这个世界第二大经济体促进消费，拉动内需，减少对出口的依赖，并摆脱所谓 "中等收入陷阱"的发展瓶颈。
中国超过65岁的人口数量已经达到1.23亿，这几乎相当于日本的总人口。而由于上世纪70年代以来实行计划生育政策，老年人占总人口的比例在急剧上升。据世界银行统计，在过去40年里，中国人口的老龄化所达到的程度，几乎相当于英美等西方国家一个世纪的发展。
很多分析人士都认为，从2015年起，中国的劳动力人数将会出现萎缩，主要原因就是越来越低的出生率和人口的老龄化。这一发展趋势将使得原本以"世界工厂"闻名的中国劳动力价格出现大幅上升，从而造成全球范围内的通货膨胀加剧。
为了应对这一人口结构变化所带来的挑战，北京在2009年出台了农村养老保险制度。但是这一保险体系的资金负担几乎全部落在政府肩上。2011年，农村养 老保险资金的61%都是由国家财政拨款资助。而农村人口老龄化的速度超过城市，这就给还很不成熟的农村养老保险体制带来巨大挑战。
联合国：中国的养老体制缺乏可持续性
经合组织（OECD）的一份全球养老体制调研报告将中国列为支付养老金最为慷慨的国家之一，仅次于菲律宾。然而在慷慨的背后隐藏的巨大问题就是，这样的体系难以长期维系。
德意志银行大中华区首席经济学家马骏和中国银行首席经济学家曹远征都认为，入不敷出的养老体系将在不远的未来给中国带来"巨大的财政压力"。到2033 年，养老资金缺口将从2010年的16.5万亿元人民币扩大四倍，达到令人咋舌的68.2万亿。如果假定中国经济保持每年6%的增长率，届时这一"黑洞" 的规模将相当于整个国内生产总值的40%。
来源：路透社 编译：雨涵
责编：叶宣
这位老人还是幸运的，因为他有六个子女，从孩子那里他可以得到经济上的资助。但是对于比他年轻的后辈来说，中国传统的家庭赡养模式将会渐渐消失，取而代之的应该是一个由国家支撑的、适应社会老龄化发展的养老体系。
农村养老保险带来的问题
长期以来，中国的政策制定者和经济学家一直为中国养老规划的不断扩大所带来的财政负担感到担忧。而从2009年秋天，国务院决定推行所谓的新型农村养老保险以来，这一担忧更是日益加剧。
资金空缺之大令人望而却步：经济专家表示，在未来的20年里，中国养老保险体系的亏空将从2010年的2.6万亿美元，飙升到10.8万亿美元，甚至超过了中国的外汇储备资金总额（3万亿左右），而中国已经是世界上外汇储备最高的国家了。
时不我待。由于计划生育政策和生活水平的提高，中国在经济迅速发展的同时，社会也在急速老龄化，这要求未来必须有更完善的养老保险体制。但是筹集资金的发展速度却远远跟不上养老体系扩大的步伐。
分析人士认为，中国的养老体制问题已经急迫到了不容忽视的程度。人们甚至猜测，即将接任中国国家主席的习近平在上台之后，必须尽快提高退休年龄，并且改革养老基金的融资方式。
人口老龄化和劳动大军萎缩有朝一日将使“世界工厂”成为过去中国人民大学经济学教授赵锡军表示："这对于中国下一届领导班子来说是非常重要的一个议题，而且时间紧迫。"中国的养老体系处在进退两难的境地中。优越的 养老金制度可以帮助中国这个世界第二大经济体促进消费，拉动内需，减少对出口的依赖，并摆脱所谓 "中等收入陷阱"的发展瓶颈。
中国超过65岁的人口数量已经达到1.23亿，这几乎相当于日本的总人口。而由于上世纪70年代以来实行计划生育政策，老年人占总人口的比例在急剧上升。据世界银行统计，在过去40年里，中国人口的老龄化所达到的程度，几乎相当于英美等西方国家一个世纪的发展。
很多分析人士都认为，从2015年起，中国的劳动力人数将会出现萎缩，主要原因就是越来越低的出生率和人口的老龄化。这一发展趋势将使得原本以"世界工厂"闻名的中国劳动力价格出现大幅上升，从而造成全球范围内的通货膨胀加剧。
为了应对这一人口结构变化所带来的挑战，北京在2009年出台了农村养老保险制度。但是这一保险体系的资金负担几乎全部落在政府肩上。2011年，农村养 老保险资金的61%都是由国家财政拨款资助。而农村人口老龄化的速度超过城市，这就给还很不成熟的农村养老保险体制带来巨大挑战。
联合国：中国的养老体制缺乏可持续性
经合组织（OECD）的一份全球养老体制调研报告将中国列为支付养老金最为慷慨的国家之一，仅次于菲律宾。然而在慷慨的背后隐藏的巨大问题就是，这样的体系难以长期维系。
养老资金缺口将给财政带来严重负担
在人口平均寿命不断延长的背景下，鉴于较高的退休金支付比例，以及较为普遍的提前退休现象（女性尤为居多），中国不得不将国家财政收入的大约40%都用于
支付养老金，而在日本和美国，这一比例均低于15%。据中国社会科学院统计，地方政府如今要掏空正在工作的成年人缴纳的养老基金，用于给退休老人支付养老
金。德意志银行大中华区首席经济学家马骏和中国银行首席经济学家曹远征都认为，入不敷出的养老体系将在不远的未来给中国带来"巨大的财政压力"。到2033 年，养老资金缺口将从2010年的16.5万亿元人民币扩大四倍，达到令人咋舌的68.2万亿。如果假定中国经济保持每年6%的增长率，届时这一"黑洞" 的规模将相当于整个国内生产总值的40%。
来源：路透社 编译：雨涵
责编：叶宣
Asia's Pension Systems Unprepared for Rapidly Aging Populations - ADB
“Across Asia, great divides exist in pensions available in rural and urban areas, between retirees from the public and private sectors, and those leaving the informal and formal job sectors,” said ADB Principal Economist Donghyun Park and editor of Pension Systems in East and Southeast Asia: Promoting Fairness and Sustainability. “Without far-reaching reforms, the financial burden of these schemes on future workers may become more than they can bear.”
Pension systems need to be fair in coverage, net benefits and retirement age, according to the book. These systems also need to be financially sustainable to assure people that the benefits promised at the end of their working lives are in fact delivered.
A key part of Asia’s economic success story in recent decades has been its youthful population. The increase in the working population has significantly contributed to the expansion of the labor force, widespread growth and greater savings. This demographic dividend is tailing off, however, and falling fertility and rising longevity mean Asia’s median age is rapidly becoming older.
The book urges Asian policymakers to provide adequate old-age income support, offering key lessons from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam.
In the PRC, for example, where the number of elderly already outstrips the combined total of senior citizens in all European countries, multiple pension systems cover urban enterprises, rural dwellers and civil servants, and will need to be rationalized to create a balanced, sustainable pension framework.
In more youthful Indonesia, the existing system covers just 14% of all private formal sector workers, and pension programs will have to expand by more than 700% to cover both formal and informal sectors. Singapore, by comparison, has a single-tier pension system with nearly universal coverage; however, the average funds per member will be insufficient as the population ages in the next 20 years.
The book also highlights the roles that changing social norms and globalization are playing in the need for pension reforms. In many countries, family-based old-age support mechanisms, such as with children supporting their elderly parents, are breaking down, particularly as globalized labor markets trigger a surge in migrant workers. Strong social protection systems, including pensions, can mitigate the insecurity that globalization brings.
ADB: Asian median age older; pension systems must be revamped
Asia may be a model of economic success because of its youthful
population, but this population is getting older—and according to
Manila-based Asian Development Bank (ADB), pension systems in the
continent need to keep up with the aging, and fast.
Pension systems in Asia, particularly in developing nations, are “unprepared and underfunded to meet the needs of the region’s rapidly aging population,” according to an ADB statement released on Tuesday.
It was quoting from the book “Pension Systems in East and Southeast Asia: Promoting Fairness and Sustainability,” also published by the ADB.
“A key part of Asia’s economic success story in recent decades has been its youthful population. The increase in the working population has significantly contributed to the expansion of the labor force, widespread growth and greater savings,” the statement said.
However, decreasing fertility and increasing life expectancy rates have rapidly raised Asia’s median age.
According to the book, pension systems need to be fair in coverage, net benefits and retirement age and must also be financially sustainable to assure pensioners that the benefits will really be delivered to them when they retire.
“Across Asia, great divides exist in pensions available in rural and urban areas, between retirees from the public and private sectors, and those leaving the informal and formal job sectors,” said Donghyun Park, the book’s editor and a principal economist at ADB.
“Without far-reaching reforms, the financial burden of these schemes on future workers may become more than they can bear,” Park also said.
The book advocates that Asian policymakers provide better pension systems to support old-age income, citing the experiences of various countries as guides for better policy-making. These countries are: The People’s Republic of China (PRC), Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
“Despite their diverse income and development levels, the common concerns in the pension systems of these eight countries are inequity and potential unsustainability,” ADB Chief Economist Changyong Rhee said in the book's foreword.
The book cites China’s pension systems as systems that need to be revamped to create a “balanced, sustainable” pension framework, in light of the number of the elderly in the country already outstripping the combined total of senior citizens in all European countries.
Improving the Philippines' system
The book notes that the Philippines' pension system is a primarily defined-benefit scheme, and proposes it should be a defined-contribution scheme instead.
According to international financial services company Sun Life Financial, a defined-benefit scheme is pre-determined and is based on a formula involving one’s years of earnings and service.
A defined-contribution scheme, on the other hand, is not pre-determined and is instead based on the assets of one’s individual retirement plan account. Sun Life Financial notes that this scheme is “popular” because it offers flexibility and choice.
Agencies involved in the Philippines’ pension system are the Social Security System (SSS), mandatory for employees in the private sector; the Government Service Insurance System (GSIS), mandatory for government employees; and the Armed Forces of the Philippines
Retirement Service Benefit System (AFP-RSBS).
Independent consultant and Actuarial Society of the Philippines fellow Ernesto Reyes, who wrote the book's chapter on the Philippines, notes that there are "significant disparities" between the SSS and GSIS in several aspects that "test the fairness and sustainability of the entire system for present and future retirees," and makes some suggestions on how the current system can be improved.
“To preserve the pension system, the government should consider raising the retirement age [from 65 to 70], increasing contributions, combining the two programs [GSIS and SSS], gradually shifting to a defined-contribution system, and expanding the economy,” he said.
GMA News Online is trying to get the reactions of GSIS and SSS officials as of this article’s posting. — BM, GMA News
Pension systems in Asia, particularly in developing nations, are “unprepared and underfunded to meet the needs of the region’s rapidly aging population,” according to an ADB statement released on Tuesday.
It was quoting from the book “Pension Systems in East and Southeast Asia: Promoting Fairness and Sustainability,” also published by the ADB.
“A key part of Asia’s economic success story in recent decades has been its youthful population. The increase in the working population has significantly contributed to the expansion of the labor force, widespread growth and greater savings,” the statement said.
However, decreasing fertility and increasing life expectancy rates have rapidly raised Asia’s median age.
According to the book, pension systems need to be fair in coverage, net benefits and retirement age and must also be financially sustainable to assure pensioners that the benefits will really be delivered to them when they retire.
“Across Asia, great divides exist in pensions available in rural and urban areas, between retirees from the public and private sectors, and those leaving the informal and formal job sectors,” said Donghyun Park, the book’s editor and a principal economist at ADB.
“Without far-reaching reforms, the financial burden of these schemes on future workers may become more than they can bear,” Park also said.
The book advocates that Asian policymakers provide better pension systems to support old-age income, citing the experiences of various countries as guides for better policy-making. These countries are: The People’s Republic of China (PRC), Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
“Despite their diverse income and development levels, the common concerns in the pension systems of these eight countries are inequity and potential unsustainability,” ADB Chief Economist Changyong Rhee said in the book's foreword.
The book cites China’s pension systems as systems that need to be revamped to create a “balanced, sustainable” pension framework, in light of the number of the elderly in the country already outstripping the combined total of senior citizens in all European countries.
Improving the Philippines' system
The book notes that the Philippines' pension system is a primarily defined-benefit scheme, and proposes it should be a defined-contribution scheme instead.
According to international financial services company Sun Life Financial, a defined-benefit scheme is pre-determined and is based on a formula involving one’s years of earnings and service.
A defined-contribution scheme, on the other hand, is not pre-determined and is instead based on the assets of one’s individual retirement plan account. Sun Life Financial notes that this scheme is “popular” because it offers flexibility and choice.
Agencies involved in the Philippines’ pension system are the Social Security System (SSS), mandatory for employees in the private sector; the Government Service Insurance System (GSIS), mandatory for government employees; and the Armed Forces of the Philippines
Retirement Service Benefit System (AFP-RSBS).
Independent consultant and Actuarial Society of the Philippines fellow Ernesto Reyes, who wrote the book's chapter on the Philippines, notes that there are "significant disparities" between the SSS and GSIS in several aspects that "test the fairness and sustainability of the entire system for present and future retirees," and makes some suggestions on how the current system can be improved.
“To preserve the pension system, the government should consider raising the retirement age [from 65 to 70], increasing contributions, combining the two programs [GSIS and SSS], gradually shifting to a defined-contribution system, and expanding the economy,” he said.
GMA News Online is trying to get the reactions of GSIS and SSS officials as of this article’s posting. — BM, GMA News
退休金財政重擔恐引發政治風險
〔編譯陳成良／綜合報導〕人口老化，亞洲面臨年金定時炸彈。亞洲開發銀行（ＡＤＢ）二十五日發布新書指出，由於政府未提撥足夠資金投入退休年金，亞洲經濟奇蹟背後的數億勞工，正步向不確定的貧窮晚年。
亞洲多國退休年金不完備
由亞銀首席經濟學家朴東炫編輯的新書「東亞與東南亞退休機制」，針對人口快速老化的東亞，以及平均年齡較年輕的東南亞國家當前及正隱隱浮現的問題，作出預測，並強調若不大刀闊斧改革，亞洲國家退休機制的財務重擔，將帶來無法承受的政治後果。
3年後 中國2億人口逾60歲
書中指出，中國到了二○一五年，六十歲及以上人口將達兩億人，隔年就業年齡層的人口才會開始縮減。中國民營企業勞工的薪水，有五分之一要提撥到年金公積金，而如退休勞工每月只領到一千四百人民幣（約六千五百台幣）。該研究發現，中國國營企業員工對公積金沒有貢獻一毛錢。
根據該書，印尼法定退休年齡為五十五歲，但年金體系只覆蓋十四％的民營企業員工，現有機制需要擴充超過八倍，才能將非正式產業的勞動力納入其中。
此外，該書認為南韓年金體系的長期財務狀況「不穩定」，馬來西亞則是「不充足且不公平」，菲律賓的年金體系出現資金缺口；新加坡也是「不充足」，泰國年金體系只覆蓋二十七％民間正式產業勞工。該書並警告，越南的年金體系只覆蓋了兩成勞動力，三十年內將出現龐大赤字。
西方衰退 退休錢景雪上加霜
該書指出，少子化、平均壽命增加以及西方貿易夥伴經濟復甦腳步疲乏，在在使得亞洲老年人的退休前景不容樂觀。
養老金評估 澳洲老人瘋藏現金
另一方面，據英國每日電訊報報導，澳洲老年人為了通過收入與財產評估，進而獲得養老金，不惜把現金藏匿在「床下或櫥櫃裡」。澳洲央行（ＲＢＡ）前官員梅爾指出，這種大規模詐欺福利行為，造成了市面上百元現鈔流通異常，目前平均每個澳洲人手頭上的百元現鈔要比二十元現鈔多。
梅爾估計，澳洲老人平均每人持有五萬澳幣（約一百五十三萬三千台幣）未申報現金，而很多現金都是五十元或百元現鈔。他提議逐步停止發行這兩種大面額現鈔，原因是現在大家普遍使用信用卡及網路進行交易，大額現鈔漸無必要。
〔編譯陳成良／綜合報導〕人口老化，亞洲面臨年金定時炸彈。亞洲開發銀行（ＡＤＢ）二十五日發布新書指出，由於政府未提撥足夠資金投入退休年金，亞洲經濟奇蹟背後的數億勞工，正步向不確定的貧窮晚年。
亞洲多國退休年金不完備
由亞銀首席經濟學家朴東炫編輯的新書「東亞與東南亞退休機制」，針對人口快速老化的東亞，以及平均年齡較年輕的東南亞國家當前及正隱隱浮現的問題，作出預測，並強調若不大刀闊斧改革，亞洲國家退休機制的財務重擔，將帶來無法承受的政治後果。
3年後 中國2億人口逾60歲
書中指出，中國到了二○一五年，六十歲及以上人口將達兩億人，隔年就業年齡層的人口才會開始縮減。中國民營企業勞工的薪水，有五分之一要提撥到年金公積金，而如退休勞工每月只領到一千四百人民幣（約六千五百台幣）。該研究發現，中國國營企業員工對公積金沒有貢獻一毛錢。
根據該書，印尼法定退休年齡為五十五歲，但年金體系只覆蓋十四％的民營企業員工，現有機制需要擴充超過八倍，才能將非正式產業的勞動力納入其中。
此外，該書認為南韓年金體系的長期財務狀況「不穩定」，馬來西亞則是「不充足且不公平」，菲律賓的年金體系出現資金缺口；新加坡也是「不充足」，泰國年金體系只覆蓋二十七％民間正式產業勞工。該書並警告，越南的年金體系只覆蓋了兩成勞動力，三十年內將出現龐大赤字。
西方衰退 退休錢景雪上加霜
該書指出，少子化、平均壽命增加以及西方貿易夥伴經濟復甦腳步疲乏，在在使得亞洲老年人的退休前景不容樂觀。
養老金評估 澳洲老人瘋藏現金
另一方面，據英國每日電訊報報導，澳洲老年人為了通過收入與財產評估，進而獲得養老金，不惜把現金藏匿在「床下或櫥櫃裡」。澳洲央行（ＲＢＡ）前官員梅爾指出，這種大規模詐欺福利行為，造成了市面上百元現鈔流通異常，目前平均每個澳洲人手頭上的百元現鈔要比二十元現鈔多。
梅爾估計，澳洲老人平均每人持有五萬澳幣（約一百五十三萬三千台幣）未申報現金，而很多現金都是五十元或百元現鈔。他提議逐步停止發行這兩種大面額現鈔，原因是現在大家普遍使用信用卡及網路進行交易，大額現鈔漸無必要。
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